Professor Anne Green writes about ‘Estimates of the Local Impact in the West Midlands of the OBR Scenario of a 35% Reduction in Real GDP in Q2 2020’ in the City REDI Blog at Birmingham University, 28 April:
The Office of Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) COVID-19 analysis published on 14th April 2020 makes clear that on the basis of evidence from past pandemics the economic impact of the crisis will arise less from illness and death than from the reduction in demand for goods and services stemming from public health restrictions and social distancing in the transition to ‘normality’. An OBR scenario based on an assumption of a three-month lockdown (restricting people’s movements and economic activity) followed by three months of partial restrictions in the transition to normality yields a 35% reduction in GDP in Q2 2020 (April to June).
This translates into a loss of 177,000 jobs out of a Birmingham total of 508,000.
- The worst hit sector is Education, with over 50,000 affected.
- Nearly 40,000 jobs lost in Wholesale and Retail.
- Over 20,00 in Accommodation and Food Service activities.
- And also over 20,000 in Manufacturing.